Here’s a more comprehensive, point-by-point analysis of NTPC’s share price, Q3 performance, and technical levels:
1. Share Price Update with Technical Levels
- Latest Price: NTPC’s stock is trading at ₹323.70 as of January 27, 2025.
- Recent Price Movements:
- January 24, 2025: Closed at ₹323.70, a minor increase of 0.02%.
- January 23, 2025: Closed at ₹323.65, up by 0.37%.
- Technical Support and Resistance Levels:
- Immediate Support: ₹318-₹320 (recent buying zone and moving average level).
- Immediate Resistance: ₹330-₹335 (psychological barrier and previous high zone).
- Breakout Zone: Sustained close above ₹335 could lead to further upside toward ₹345.
- Key Indicators: RSI (Relative Strength Index) near neutral, suggesting no immediate overbought or oversold conditions.
2. Q3 FY25 Financial Performance Analysis
- Net Profit:
- Declined by 1.8%, from ₹5,155 crore in Q3 FY24 to ₹5,063 crore in Q3 FY25.
- Reason: Higher current and deferred tax expenses.
- Revenue Growth:
- Increased by 5.2% to ₹45,053 crore, compared to ₹42,825 crore in Q3 FY24.
- Interpretation: Reflects stable demand for NTPC’s power generation and better realization of tariffs.
- EBITDA Growth:
- Significant rise of 20.3%, reaching ₹13,667 crore.
- Positives: Indicates operational efficiency improvements and higher profitability from core operations.
3. Dividends and Installed Capacity
- Dividend Announcement:
- Declared a second interim dividend of ₹2.5 per equity share for FY25.
- Implication: Shows NTPC’s strong cash flow management and commitment to shareholder returns.
- Installed Capacity:
- Stands at 76,598 MW as of December 2024.
- Significance: Reflects NTPC’s leadership in the power generation space and its capacity to meet growing electricity demand.
4. Technical Momentum and Market Context
- Broader Market Trends:
- January 24: BSE SENSEX fell by 0.43%, yet NTPC remained stable.
- January 23: BSE SENSEX rose by 0.15%, and NTPC showed modest gains, indicating resilience in the stock.
- Trading Volumes:
- Moderate volumes suggest no significant accumulation or distribution phase currently.
- Long-Term Trend:
- Stock is trading above its 200-day moving average (around ₹310), indicating a long-term bullish trend.
- Consolidation near ₹320-₹325 could provide a platform for the next leg of upward movement.
5. Key Takeaways
- Positives:
- Revenue growth and operational efficiency are strong, with EBITDA rising significantly.
- Consistent dividend payout and robust installed capacity highlight NTPC’s stability and growth potential.
- Technical support at ₹318-₹320 provides a cushion for downside risks.
- Challenges:
- Marginal decline in net profit due to tax impact.
- Resistance at ₹330-₹335 could limit short-term upside unless strong buying momentum emerges.
- Investor Outlook:
- A sustained break above ₹335 could trigger fresh buying interest.
- Long-term investors may focus on NTPC’s stable business fundamentals and dividend yield, while traders can watch for technical breakout opportunities.
Conclusion
NTPC’s Q3 results showcase steady operational performance and resilience despite higher tax expenses impacting net profit. The technical setup suggests the stock is in a consolidation phase, with critical support at ₹318 and resistance at ₹335. Investors should watch these levels closely for further directional movement.
